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← 笔记Notes2026.09.12 · 1 分钟min

读书笔记:为什么测量误差总往同一个方向偏Reading notes: why measurements lie in the same direction

Reading notes: why measurements lie in the same direction读书笔记:为什么测量误差总往同一个方向偏

阅读Reading笔记Note 03

一本讲测量误差的书的笔记,以及其中一个改变了我做实验方式的观点。

Notes from a book about measurement error, and the one idea from it that changed how I set up experiments.

  • reading
  • measurement
  • methodology
目录Contents

一本讲测量的书的简短笔记——主要是给自己看的,因为下面这个观点今年已经改掉过我三个决定。

这个观点

测量误差很少是独立的,也很少是对称的。仪器都对着同一个基准校准,观测者接受的是同一套训练,协议是同一个人写的。所以来自不同来源的误差,彼此之间的「一致」往往比偶然该有的一致更多。

这意味着那句常见的安慰——「误差会平均掉」——经常是假的。取平均能消掉随机误差,它对每一次测量都共享的那个偏差毫无作用。

我改掉的

  1. 先测,再建模。 如果两个人量同一株植物,分歧比你要找的那个效应还大,那么把模型改得多好都没意义。先把分歧量出来。
  2. 换观测者,而不是加观测次数。 一个人量二十次,不等于二十次独立测量。
  3. 把协议写下来。 活在某个人的脑子里的协议,是一个附带了一个人的偏差。

还没有答案的

重新标注多少才够,我没有好答案。我现在用的经验规则——重标 10%,看离散程度,若它比效应还大就再来一轮——是个启发式,而且我怀疑在小样本下它是个坏规则。记在这里,免得我忘了回来处理它。

归档于 阅读 · 2026.09.12

目录Contents

Short notes on a book about measurement — mostly for myself, because the idea below has already changed three decisions this year.

The idea

Measurement errors are rarely independent and rarely symmetric. Instruments are calibrated against the same reference, observers share the same training, and protocols are written by the same person. So the errors from different sources agree with each other more often than chance would suggest.

That means the usual comfort — "errors will average out" — is often false. Averaging removes random error. It does nothing to a bias that every measurement shares.

What I changed

  1. Measurement before modelling. If two people measuring the same plant disagree by more than the effect being looked for, no model improvement matters. Measure the disagreement first.
  2. Different observers, not more observations. Twenty measurements by one person are not twenty independent measurements.
  3. Write the protocol down. A protocol that lives in someone's head is a bias with a person attached to it.

Still unresolved

I do not have a good answer for how much re-labelling is enough. The practical rule I use — re-label ten percent, inspect the spread, repeat if it is larger than the effect — is a heuristic, and I suspect it is a bad one at small sample sizes. Noted here so that I remember to come back to it.

Filed under Reading · 2026.09.12